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Cake day: June 11th, 2023

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  • That depends on whether the virus starts spreading human-to-human with each infected person infecting more than one other person.

    If it does not, then things look like the SARS outbreak in 2002-2004, where a few people get sick, and a few people die.

    If it starts spreading with R₀ > 1, then pretty much everybody gets it, and a significant number die.

    We could reduce the risk of the latter with measures like:

    • Actively test all dairy herds
    • Vaccinate dairy workers, and regularly test them for infection
    • Quarantine those who are infected
    • Ban the sale of unpasteurized milk and crack down on existing black-market distribution of it

    However, it seems really unlikely that we’ll actually do so.





  • No, the law here allows the President to designate areas as off-limits, but doesn’t provide for the President reversing such a decision. It would take either Congress changing the rules, or the courts to invalidate the rule.

    So it’s a bit more than posturing.

    And he didn’t need to four years ago, because he could simply not issue new drilling leases in these places.

    Besides, it’s not like Biden will ever run for office again. Posturing is worthless to him right now.